ABSTRACT
This paper presents the findings of our fourth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity. The 15 issues were identified via an iterative, transferable process by a team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist. The 15 topics include the commercial use of antimicrobial peptides, thorium-fuelled nuclear power, and undersea oil production.
Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources/trends , Animals , Antimicrobial Cationic Peptides , Aquaculture/trends , Aquatic Organisms , Autoimmune Diseases/etiology , Biodiversity , Cocos , Coral Reefs , DNA/analysis , Extinction, Biological , Extraction and Processing Industry/trends , Forestry/trends , Humans , Hypersensitivity/etiology , Nuclear Power Plants/statistics & numerical data , Nucleic Acids/chemical synthesis , Printing/trends , Solar Energy/statistics & numerical data , Thorium , Water CycleABSTRACT
Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.
Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , BiodiversityABSTRACT
This review describes outcomes of a 2010 horizon-scanning exercise building upon the first exercise conducted in 2009. The aim of both horizon scans was to identify emerging issues that could have substantial impacts on the conservation of biological diversity, and to do so sufficiently early to encourage policy-relevant, practical research on those issues. Our group included professional horizon scanners and researchers affiliated with universities and non- and inter-governmental organizations, including specialists on topics such as invasive species, wildlife diseases and coral reefs. We identified 15 nascent issues, including new greenhouse gases, genetic techniques to eradicate mosquitoes, milk consumption in Asia and societal pessimism.
